The Best Actress Race Is Rough To Predict

It’s perennially the most competitive Oscar category, but it’s hard to think of a year more stocked with contenders than this one.
Photo: MUBI/Everett Collection

Best Actress is perennially the most competitive Oscar category, but it’s hard to think of a year more stocked with major female contenders than this one. At one point, it seemed like there were nearly a dozen plausible nominees for only five spots. As the field has narrowed, four women appear to have pulled ahead of their rivals, but that only means the competition for the last seat will be even more fierce. Here’s a guide to the performers who will be hoping to hear their names called at next weekend’s Oscar nominations. Some are venerated veterans, others total newcomers, but for the next nine days they’re all locked in together in the Best Actress cage match.

The role: Elisabeth Sparkle, a 50-year-old TV star who embarks on a radical new anti-aging regime.

The race so far: Won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical. Nominated at the other major precursors.

In her favor: Ever since The Substance premiered at Cannes, Moore’s comeback has been one of the biggest stories of the season. She gives arguably the year’s bravest performance — and not just in the usual way people use that word, as a euphemism for nudity or gross-out horror imagery. (Though the film has copious amounts of both.) While The Substance may be more extreme than what we typically think of as Oscar fare, at its heart it has an incredibly Academy-friendly message about the hardships faced by older actresses. Moore addressed this in her masterful Globes acceptance speech, an A-plus bit of awards campaigning that tied together the trophy, her overall career narrative, and the themes of the movie.

Working against her: Though fears that The Substance was not an “awards movie” have quieted down now that it’s been nominated at almost every precursor, this is still a divisive film that some viewers vocally loathe.

The role: Ani, an exotic dancer from Brighton Beach whose Cinderella marriage to an oligarch’s son soon goes south.

The race so far: Nominated at all the major precursors. Won the Breakthrough Performance award from the National Board of Review.

In her favor: In Anora, 25-year-old Madison gets a classic “star is born” moment: She’s a saleswoman, a hustler, a bride, a scrapper, and finally, in the film’s much-discussed final scene, a woman on the brink of coming apart completely. She’s the heart of a top-tier Best Picture player, and a real discovery in her own right, two factors that traditionally make for a strong contender.

Working against her: Ani is such a force that I can’t help but detect a little disappointment when people note that Madison herself is very different — shyer, more reserved, less likely to bite anyone. You can spin this into a positive: That Madison is nothing like her character only proves how good of an actress she is. However, while the old Academy loved to reward an ingénue in Best Actress, new members seem to prefer performers with a little more seasoning. Compared to the venerable stars who command precursor stages this time of year, Madison sometimes feels like a high-schooler addressing her local Rotary Club.

The role: A murderous Mexican drug lord who transitions, then attempts to atone for her past by becoming the philanthropist Emilia Pérez.

The race so far: Shared the Best Actress prize at Cannes with three of her co-stars. Nominated at all the major precursors.

In her favor: Jacques Audiard’s musical does not work for everyone, but for those whom it does, Gascón’s big-hearted performance is emblematic of the movie’s message of acceptance and rebirth, notes she hit when Audiard brought her to the podium to accept Emilia Pérez’s Best Musical or Comedy Globe. The Spanish actress is hoping to become the first out trans actor nominated for an Oscar, and with her film consolidating support among the international contingent, she seems on track to make history.

Working against her: While Emilia is the titular role, Gascón’s co-star Zoe Saldaña is the movie’s POV character. In the season’s biggest category-fraud controversy, Saldaña is running in Supporting Actress, where the heft of her role has made her the presumed Oscar front-runner. All this noise can’t help but steal some attention away from Gascón’s performance.

The role: Elphaba, a green-skinned college freshman (?) fated to become one of the most iconic villains in cinema history.

The race so far: Nominated at all the major precursors.

In her favor: Erivo is a preternaturally empathic screen presence, so emotionally transparent that you feel like you’re right there with her, even when she’s on a broomstick fighting flying monkeys. It doesn’t hurt that she gets to sing “Defying Gravity,” either.

Working against her: Because she entered the field later than the three women listed above, and is in the race partly on the back of Wicked’s boffo box office, Erivo’s place feels slightly more provisional. In all likelihood she’s safe, but she could falter if overseas voters, for whom Wicked is less of a thing, put their weight behind other contenders.

The role: Eunice Paiva, a Brazilian matriarch forced into political activism after her husband was disappeared by the country’s military regime in the early 1970s.

The race so far: Won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Drama.

In her favor: Walter Salles’s quietly compassionate portrait of the Paiva family has amassed a devoted following, and Sony Pictures Classics smartly honed in on Torres as the focus of the film’s awards campaign. There’s an emotional angle to her bid: Torres would be only the second Brazilian nominated in Best Actress; the first was her mother, Fernanda Montenegro, who was nominated for Salles’s Central Station. (Montenegro also pops up in I’m Still Here as an older version of Eunice.) Throw in the fact that Salles grew up with the real Paivas, and the film has the warm feeling of a family reunion.

Working against her: Though the Globe win undoubtedly raised her profile, Torres is still repping a film with a smaller awards-season footprint than the competition. Her base is critics and international members, among whom she may split votes with the next woman on this list …

The role: Pansy, an ill-tempered Londoner struggling with grief and mental-health issues, which manifest as a pathological inability to enjoy interacting with other people.

The race so far: Named Best Actress by the New York Film Critics Circle, Los Angeles Film Critics Association, and National Society of Film Critics. Nominated at Critics Choice and made the BAFTA longlist.

In her favor: “Transcendant.” “Blistering.” “Titanic.” Those are just three of the words critics have used to describe Jean-Baptiste’s performance, and collectively, they’ve made her Best Actress campaign their official cause. Hard Truths marks her reunion with Mike Leigh, who directed her Oscar-nominated turn in Secrets & Lies, and voters who know Leigh’s methods will be aware that Jean-Baptiste didn’t just act her character; she played a key creative role in Pansy’s construction. As one supporter reminded me at the NYFCC ceremony, the new Academy prides itself on being more highbrow than the precursors, and nominating Jean-Baptiste when the Globes and SAG didn’t would be an opportunity for Academy voters to lean further into that self-image.

Working against her: Hard Truths is a smaller film that doesn’t exactly leap off the screener pile. Speaking as someone who’s tried to bang the drum for it, “Watch a woman be in a bad mood for 90 minutes” is kind of a tough sell. And though BAFTA was the only industry precursor to mention her, Jean-Baptiste is not nailed on for the win there. She has lived in Los Angeles for decades, acting in procedurals like Without a Trace, so she may not have the kind of connections among the British academy that we’d assume.

The role: Romy, a CEO whose domestic and professional lives are upended when she begins a submissive relationship with her hunky intern.

The race so far: Won the Volpi Cup at Venice and named Best Actress by the National Board of Review. Nominated at the Golden Globes and longlisted at BAFTA.

In her favor: In a field full of discoveries, Kidman’s profile stands out. She’s a five-time Oscar nominee who knows everyone, and has worked with everyone. While her career hasn’t had the same ups and downs as Moore’s, there’s still a tiny whiff of a comeback to her candidacy: After becoming the queen of expensive, forgettable limited series, Babygirl sees her return to the kind of challenging work she did back in the Aughts. She is already benefiting from A24’s knack for viral moments, using her acceptance speech at the NBR gala to chug an entire glass of milk.

Working against her: Despite positive reviews, neither critics groups nor SAG tipped for Kidman’s performance the way they might have, and were she to get in, she would almost certainly be her film’s only nominee. I used to think Babygirl would be the more acceptable version of The Substance for awards voters, but now I wonder if the comparison to the gonzo body-horror is making this erotic drama feel tame.

The role: Shelly, a Las Vegas showgirl taking stock of her choices as her long-running revue enters its final performances.

The race so far: Nominated at the Golden Globes and SAG.

In her favor: The Last Showgirl is a small, slight film that barely passes the 80-minute mark, and it didn’t make much noise at its TIFF premiere. But like its heroine, Gia Coppola’s film has stuck around even after being written off, and its pathos clearly struck a chord with the actors in SAG, who nominated both Anderson and her co-star Jamie Lee Curtis. She’s cut a unique figure on the awards trail by eschewing high-glam makeup and styling, a reinvention that ties into her narrative as a serious artist finally getting her due. As The Last Showgirl opens this weekend, Anderson’s campaign appears to be peaking at the right time. “Her range may be narrow, but her ability to be wholly vulnerable onscreen is rare and wonderful,” raves Manohla Dargis.

Working against her: Though The Last Showgirl may be the most acclaimed film made by a Coppola last year, it’s also a feather-light thing — as Amy Nicholson says, “less a story than a vibe.” And while it’s hard not to root for Anderson’s second-act revival, will it hurt that she is essentially running the same campaign as Demi Moore?

That’s eight women for five spots, and we haven’t even covered everyone. Maria’s Angelina Jolie could still technically win at the Critics Choice Awards. BAFTA might still nominate Nightbitch’s Amy Adams, The Outrun’s Saoirse Ronan, or Lee’s Kate Winslet. Best of luck to all of them!

Every week between now and January 19, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscar race. In our “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.

Ordinarily, the final weekend before Oscar nominations would be a flurry of last-minute campaigning. But the real world threw a wrench in those plans, as the devastating wildfires in L.A. meant that many of those who would be gladhanding now have more important things to worry about. (Coincidentally, this week’s big events, the National Board of Review gala and the New York Film Critics Circle Awards, both took place in Manhattan, but the fires were very much in mind at the latter.) Precursors like the Critics Choice Awards and Producers Guild nominations pushed back their dates, while Oscar voting has been extended two days. It’s too early — and a bit tasteless — to speculate about how this will affect the race, but the timeout does ensure that the last image from before the season was upended will be Emilia Pérez cleaning up at the Golden Globes, cementing its position as a leading Best Picture contender. Hollywood guilds like SAG and DGA also sprung for Emilia, confirming that this is a film to be reckoned with.

Sing Sing has been repeating the CODA playbook: Open as counterprogramming in the summer, reintroduce yourself to voters in the fall, and get the whole cast together whenever possible. Unfortunately, that comparison broke down at this week’s SAG nominations. While CODA began its rise with a shocking best ensemble win at SAG, Sing Sing missed the guild’s top category, and saw Clarence Maclin left out in Supporting Actor to boot. The prison drama’s Best Picture hopes are hanging by a thread, the only consolation being that other bubble contenders like Nickel Boys and A Real Pain have yet to lock down their spots, either.

Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, The Substance, Wicked

Wednesday’s DGA lineup included the four men everyone expected plus Mangold, making it a great day for the Bob Dylan biopic, which also outperformed expectations at that morning’s SAG nominations. A director who occupies the middle ground between auteur and journeyman, Mangold doesn’t fit this branch’s usual Eurocentric tastes, but if his film plays as well with the Academy as it has with the guilds, that won’t matter.

The Directors Guild of America is more friendly to big studio films than other precursors, so Chu’s inability to crack that lineup is telling. His appearances at the 2025 Golden Globes and National Board of Review gala this week had the air of a man who knew he probably wasn’t going to get another chance to speak and wanted to get it all out.

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Sean Baker, Anora; Edward Berger, Conclave; Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

In their Best Actor in a Musical/Comedy category, the Globes had no choice but to Stan, honoring the slumming superhero’s turn in this underappreciated black comedy. After its surprise Best Feature win at the Gothams, that makes two well-deserved trophies for A Different Man — two more than anyone expected. Still, Stan’s Globes acceptance speech underlined one of his major difficulties this season: He had to shout out his other nominated performance in The Apprentice, and with the Trump biopic still kicking around (Jeremy Strong just received a SAG nomination), the actor will continue to compete against himself.

It would be a little funny if Craig lost his spot to Stan at the Oscars, since Queer and A Different Man are both A24 films, and the studio has prioritized the former this season. However, given the option to nominate anyone, SAG voters chose to rubber-stamp Craig in with the rest of this race’s presumptive top five, which makes me think his spot is safe.

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Daniel Craig, Queer; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

When Moore spoke at the Globes of being written off as “a popcorn actress” earlier in her career, I was reminded of Brendan Fraser making similar remarks during his campaign for The Whale. It’s an interesting rhetorical strategy, positioning an actor as an underdog because they starred in a bunch of hugely successful blockbusters, but I can’t deny that it works. Just like Fraser did, Moore has made herself very easy to root for, and at the moment, she looks like the new Best Actress front-runner.

Jolie’s Oscar hopes died the same way Hemingway’s heroes went bankrupt: gradually, then all at once. After losing the Best Actress in a Drama Globe that many pundits pegged her to win, she was left out at SAG despite the Guild’s well-known affinity for Netflix projects. Since she also missed the longlist at BAFTA, suddenly her race appears to be run.

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths; Mikey Madison, Anora; Demi Moore, The Substance

If I wasn’t already sure that Culkin was on track for this Oscar, the scene at the NBR gala would have confirmed it. Operating without prepared remarks, Culkin delivered a stream-of-consciousness riff about bathroom attendants, spitting out his gum mid-speech and handing it to Jesse Eisenberg. The audience in the room ate up every second of it. “This is my third Kieran speech this week,” said my seatmate John Lithgow, who delayed his departure so he could catch Culkin’s award. “He’s amazing.”

Introducing Wicked’s Best Picture award at the NBR gala, Ryan Reynolds went on a long tangent slamming Jonathan Bailey for unfairly raising the bar for Hollywood’s leading men. Huh, I thought, he’s really going all-in on this Bailey thing. A cynic might think Universal’s campaign was trying to pump up the actor’s stock ahead of his appearance in the next Jurassic World movie, but then the next day, Bailey was nominated for a SAG Award! You may see this nod as a sign of Wicked’s strength in the overall race, or as proof of the Guild’s unconscious bias towards the beginning of the alphabet. I’m choosing to take it as a reminder that awards season can still surprise us.

Yura Borisov, Anora; Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

The season’s most unsettled category got even more chaotic at the SAG nominations, where voters disregarded many of the usual suspects in order to welcome new faces into the race. One was Curtis, who proved her surprise appearance on last week’s BAFTA longlist was not a one-off. The Last Showgirl lets her go very big as an alcoholic cocktail waitress, and Coppola even gives her a showcase dance scene set to “Total Eclipse of the Heart.” As we saw on The Bear, awards voters love JLC in this mode, and after winning the Oscar two years ago, she could be in for a classic halo nomination.

For weeks, Complete Unknown fans have been asking why Barbaro wasn’t getting more awards attention. Now she has, earning a Supporting Actress nomination at SAG to go along with the biopic’s Best Cast nod. The case for a coattail nomination is clear: Since Timothée Chalamet’s Bob Dylan is such a jerk, she’s the closest thing the film has to an audience surrogate, and she should get degree-of-difficulty points for nailing Joan Baez’s inimitable vocals. But I wonder if the Top Gun: Maverick actress will be hampered by a lack of name recognition, especially if the final spot comes down to her versus Curtis.

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Margaret Qualley, The Substance; Isabella Rossellini, Conclave; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez