Every time the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders have played this season, both starting QBs have been injured. In their first matchup, rookie QB Jayden Daniels was still nursing a rib injury and couldn’t really move or throw the way he used to, leading to an Eagles’ victory. The second time, QB Jalen Hurts was knocked out of the game with a concussion, and the Commanders came back to win the game.
Both signal callers should be healthy when teams face again in the 2025 NFC Championship Game, which makes this game really interesting. My biggest question for the Commanders is how they can force QB Jalen Hurts to be uncomfortable in the pocket, and if their chaotic defensive style can force Philly off their game.
This year, the Jalen Hurts discussions have been … interesting. While he is an incredibly talented player and an automatic plus-one in the most feared run game in the NFL, the passing game has felt disjointed and out of sorts for almost the entire season. Whether you want to blame Hurts, or offensive coordinator Kellen Moore for that, it can’t be overlooked that the Eagles’ dropback passing game has been thrown off course.
This shows up massively under pressure, where Hurts is an entirely different QB. Among all QBs with at least 100 snaps under pressure per Sumer Sports, Hurts has a -0.52 EPA per play, only one spot above QB Daniel Jones and not too far off from Will Levis. He also has a paltry 26.8% Success Rate against pressure, which is in the same region as Deshaun Watson. Not great, Bob! This shows up on the film, where the answer to this problem isn’t that the offense isn’t building in many easy answers or Hurts isn’t seeing them—it’s both.
Hurts was sacked seven times against the Rams, and a majority of those sacks came on simulated pressures that fooled Hurts and Kellen Moore. On this sack, the Rams show a mugged look that doesn’t change with the motion by RB Saquon Barkley. Philly is running double slants to Hurts’ left and a spacing concept to his right. With everyone mugged and expecting a blitz, Hurts takes the snap and expects to hit WR Devonta Smith where the blitzing LBs were supposed to be. However, one of the LBs blitz but the other drops directly to Smith, and Hurts is forced to come off it. You can make the argument that he should hit AJ Brown on the backside of this play, but for the most part everything is wadded up and Hurts takes a sack.
While that one shows off a passer that couldn’t get to the backside of the play, some concepts just got figured out by the Rams. There’s not many places to go with the ball on this passing concept. You can see from the end zone view that Hurts wants to go for the comeback route to WR AJ Brown, but comes off of it due to good coverage. To the front side of the concept, everything is accounted for. There’s nowhere to go with the ball, and Hurts isn’t going into creative mode so he takes a sack (Jared Verse also decleated Mekhi Becton on this rep).
This stands out because while the Commanders’ defense isn’t exactly a dominant unit, they thrive on chaos. They want explosive plays for the defense, which are sacks, interceptions and fumbles. Washington finished the regular season 12th in the NFL in sacks, but against Hurts and Philadelphia, they only sacked Hurts twice and got pressure on 14 of his 40 dropbacks. Most importantly, Hurts didn’t turn the ball over against the Commanders. What I thought was interesting going back through the snaps that the Commanders’ defense played against Hurts was how little simulated pressures and games they played to try and get the Eagles’ QB off-balance. This one worked in their Week 11 game, when they brought a blitz and played man coverage behind it.
Hurts has Devonta Smith on a shallow route, but decides not to take it and eats a sack.
There’s an easy fix to all of these simulated pressures getting the best of Hurts and the Eagles’ passing game: never put yourself in those situations in the first place. Most teams are going to unleash those kind of pressures on obvious passing downs, but it’s really hard to do them on 3rd and 4. In the Eagles’ first matchup with the Commanders and Hurts being healthy, Philly had a 47% Success Rate and 0.15 EPA per run on early downs. This offense remaining on schedule opens up so many more avenues for their playcalling, but most importantly it allows them to never be in a situation where they have to pass the ball.
Take the first big Saquon touchdown, for example. It’s 3rd and 4, and the Rams line up with three of their defensive linemen to one side, and both linebackers to the other side. Hurts sees this, knowing the down and distance, and checks into a run play because they have a really good chance at hitting LA hard with a run. Next thing you know, Barkley takes off for a touchdown.
I think this is really smart by Hurts understanding the down+distance and also who they’re playing against. Mekhi Becton sent Rozeboom to the upper room pic.twitter.com/W3SEsuk9e4
— JP Acosta (@acosta32_jp) January 20, 2025
The Commanders have to win on early downs in this game, starting up front. Defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne will have to play their best football, which comes after playing one of the best games of their lives against the Lions. If the Eagles can live in 2nd and 4 or 2nd and 5, they’ll win the game. However, if Philly gets forced into obvious passing situations, which Jalen Hurts shows up?
