How To Win The Best Picture Oscar

Photo: Kevin Winter/Getty Images

When Tolstoy claimed that all happy families were alike, he may have been talking about the Oscars. Call it the holiday-card theory of awards season: For three years running, the Best Picture prize has gone to the film whose cast has done the best job presenting as a heartwarming family unit.

I first noticed this trend during the season of CODA, when eventual Supporting Actor winner Troy Kotsur reliably brought the house down in every precursor ceremony. When I mentioned this to someone who worked on the film’s campaign, they noted it wasn’t just Kotsur — it was the whole family. Whenever Kotsur and his co-stars Marlee Matlin, Emilia Jones, and Daniel Durant entered a room together, voters glommed onto them. Whatever warm feelings viewers had toward their onscreen family were activated when they saw the actors together cosplaying as an actual family in real life.

The same held true the following season, when Everything Everywhere All at Once cruised to victory on the back of its own lovable family. Its ensemble may have spent much of the movie punching one another, but on the campaign trail they were a united front. With Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Quan, Stephanie Hsu, and James Hong slotted into familiar familial roles while Jamie Lee Curtis filling in as the kooky aunt.

Of course, it helped that these movies were literally about families. Both CODA and EEAAO told Oscar-friendly stories of parents and children overcoming their differences to achieve an external goal (getting into music school or sorting out tax issues), cementing their bond in the process. But other films have employed the same dynamic to equal success, even without ending on a big group hug. Parasite was in many ways the forerunner of the strategy, but it featured a much more caustic family story. That didn’t stop Hollywood from embracing the actors who played the Kim and Park families when they toured America as a group; for many pundits, the sight of the actors striding onstage at the 2020 SAG Awards to accept their Best Cast trophy was the moment they realized Parasite would be a formidable contender. Last year’s Oppenheimer wasn’t about a family at all, but the onscreen camaraderie among the scientists at Los Alamos definitely translated when the “Oppenhomies” hit the awards trail, bringing a sense of fraternal affection to an otherwise austere contender.

In the spirit of Thanksgiving, then, let’s turn our judgemental gaze on others. Which films might benefit most from the holiday-card dynamic this year?

On paper, The Piano Lesson looks like the obvious pick. Not only is it a film about family — a pair of siblings weighing questions of legacy and inherited trauma — but it was made by one, too. The movie was produced by Denzel Washington, part of his project adapting each play in August Wilson’s “Pittsburgh” cycle, and it features three of his children: Malcolm directs, John David stars, and Katia is an executive producer. Buzz has been quieter than Netflix might have expected, though, even after the movie hit streaming last week. The Piano Lesson is not Netflix’s No. 1 priority this season, so perhaps the Washingtons will have to take the campaign into their own hands. Is this something a family road trip can fix?

Netflix’s favored child is Emilia Pérez, which features a family dynamic even messier than Parasite’s. It’s about a trans gangster who fakes her own death, then gets into a custody battle with her former wife, who believes this new woman is her dead husband’s cousin. However, internal factors may prevent the cast from buddying up the way others do. Besides the vastly different levels of fame among the main actors, there’s also a language barrier: Half of them are native Spanish speakers, one of them was raised bilingual, and the other had to relearn Spanish for the film. At least Selena Gomez and Édgar Ramirez appear to be close!

One film that nails the holiday-card energy is the Brazilian entry I’m Still Here, which follows a family in 1970s Rio de Janeiro soldiering on after the father is disappeared by the military regime. Like The Piano Lesson, it has a real-life family connection: In the epilogue, Fernanda Torres’s matriarch is played by Torres’s mother, Oscar nominee Fernanda Montenegro. But Sony Pictures Classics is focusing on Torres’s Best Actress campaign; the film might be too far from the Best Picture conversation to make a full-family charm offensive worthwhile.

We might be better off looking at films that, like Oppenheimer, feature makeshift families. Two come to mind. There’s Sing Sing, about inmates in a state penitentiary who form their own theater troupe, many of whom are played by graduates of the actual program. Then there’s Anora, in which four squabbling strangers transform into an unofficial family unit over one wild night (and turn out to be more functional than the actual family we meet later). They both feel like campaigns that should get a boost from voters seeing everyone in the cast bounce off one another in person.

Who else? Whatever Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande are doing on the Wicked press tour, family is not the word that comes to mind. While Steve McQueen’s Blitz appears to have faded a bit, any hopes it does have rest of Saoirse Ronan’s skills on the campaign trail, where the Irish actress has perfected a winning double act with her onscreen son, Elliott Heffernan. Jesse Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin play cousins in A Real Pain, but their vibe is less cuddly. I got to meet both actors at a dinner last week and was struck by how different they come off in public: Eisenberg is constitutionally incapable of being “on,” while Culkin can’t not be on. Anyway, there’s only two of them, which is not quite enough to sell the family-reunion vibe.

Maybe the cast everyone most wants to see together is the one that’s not playing a family at all. Wouldn’t you love to see all the cardinals from Conclave hanging out in their street clothes? (We’d finally get to see if the vaping Italian vapes in real life!) Unfortunately, per Little Gold Men, the cast are away from the trail working, leaving director Edward Berger as the face of the campaign. But with any luck, Conclave can go the distance, and all these middle-aged character actors will come together in their full glory. I’ll give thanks to that.

We’ve all been there: You’re sitting down at Thanksgiving, wanting to have a nice, peaceful meal, but your uncle won’t stop unpacking the gender politics of The Substance. He’s trying to draw you into a confrontation over whether the film is making a point about internalized misogyny or punching down at women trying to survive in a sexist power structure — and all you’re trying to do is eat your mashed potatoes! You stumble through an argument about how director Coralie Fargeat weaponizes the male gaze, but halfway through you realize, I have no idea how to pronounce her last name.

Fear not — I’m here to help. As the festive season kicks into high gear, here’s a guide to talking about some of the Oscar race’s biggest (and most easily mispronounced) names:

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist: cor-BAY
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II: MESK-ul
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez: gas-CON
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance: far-ZHAH
Mark Eydelshteyn, Anora: EYE-del-shtine
Halina Reijn, Babygirl: ha-LEEN-a RAIN
Fred Hechinger, Gladiator II and Nickel Boys: HECK-in-jer
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown: BAR-ber-o

Every week between now and January 17, when the nominations for the Academy Awards are announced, Vulture will consult its crystal ball to determine the changing fortunes in this year’s Oscar race. In our “Oscar Futures” column, we’ll let you in on insider gossip, parse brand-new developments, and track industry buzz to figure out who’s up, who’s down, and who’s currently leading the race for a coveted Oscar nomination.

Who’s next in line behind Emilia Pérez for the now-customary international spot in Best Picture? The best bet is this Iranian domestic drama, which opened on Wednesday to outstanding reviews and a making-of narrative just as gripping as what’s onscreen: Director Mohammad Rasoulof shot the film in secret and was forced to flee the country before its Cannes premiere. (He currently lives in Germany, which has selected Sacred Fig as its Oscar entry.) Last year, there was room for both Anatomy of a Fall and Zone of Interest in the Best Picture ten, and Sacred Fig may be bolstered by its 11-hour shift into thriller mode, a tonal swerve you don’t often see in Iranian arthouse films.

Can the animated sequel, which looks poised to usurp Inside Out 2 as the year’s highest-grossing film, break into the awards picture? Moana 2 was originally planned as a Disney+ series before being retrofitted as a theatrical release, the better to separate America’s families from their wallets. Unfortunately, critics agree the seams, as well as the absence of Lin-Manuel Miranda, are all too noticeable. “It doesn’t feel like a true sequel so much as it feels like a souped-up version of one of the direct-to-video affairs that Disney used to pump out for all of its big releases,” says Vulture’s Alison Willmore.

Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, September 5, Sing Sing, Wicked

Few directors on the awards trail will have as many stories to tell as Rasoulof, who directed his film remotely and fled across the border on foot to escape an eight-year prison sentence. Despite this, he remains a warm and engaging presence on the circuit, a quality critics have also spotlighted in his film. “Beneath Rasoulof’s blistering rage erupts a wellspring of empathy,” says Justin Chang. Don’t be surprised if critics’ groups start making noise in his direction.

The trouble with releasing two films in the same year is that there’s no guarantee everyone will agree on which is better. Consensus among reviewers is that this week’s William S. Burroughs adaptation is full of interesting elements that never quite cohere, and many are not shy in preferring last spring’s Challengers. But Guadagnino seems to feel the opposite, at least judging by the way he’s campaigning. It’s hard to blame him: While Challengers is lingering near the margins of the awards conversation, Queer seems likely to earn at least one major nomination, even if it’s not for the director himself.

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez; Sean Baker, Anora; Edward Berger, Conclave; Brady Corbet, The Brutalist; Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two

Since hanging up his tuxedo, Craig has been searching for the role that will kill off 007 for good. Queer provides the coup de grâce. As Burroughs’s alter ego, a blundering heroin addict pining after a younger man, the actor manages to be uncool onscreen for the first time ever. “Craig cracks this smitten, doomed romantic wide open,” says David Fear. “This is a milestone in his career.”

Still, Queer is what awards pundits euphemistically call a “difficult” film, which led many to discount his chances post-Venice. What’s changed in the past few months? A sterling campaign blending thoughtful quotes about masculinity with viral stunts has helped. But Craig’s also been aided by rivals like Paul Mescal and Sebastian Stan dropping out of contention. There’s always a chance Queer will simply prove too much for some voters, but Craig’s stature and narrative give me confidence he’ll score his first career nomination.

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist; Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown; Daniel Craig, Queer; Colman Domingo, Sing Sing; Ralph Fiennes, Conclave

Wicked scored the best-ever opening for a film based on a Broadway musical last weekend, and with each dollar it makes, we’ll have to hold more space for Erivo in the Best Actress race. Compared to those of fellow bubble contenders like Saoirse Ronan and Marianne Jean-Baptiste, her film is guaranteed to be the most widely seen. While Barbie’s billions couldn’t push Margot Robbie to an acting nod last season, voters seemed to consider that a purely comic turn. For better or for worse, Erivo delivers a more earnest performance, which in turn makes her more ripe for recognition.

Maria opens in select theaters this week before arriving on Netflix in early December, heralding the return of something we thought we’d never see again: a full-scale Angelina Jolie promo campaign. She’s hitting the media circuit hard, a necessary step after Pablo Larraín’s film failed to ignite with critics at its Venice premiere.

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez; Angelina Jolie, Maria; Nicole Kidman, Babygirl; Mikey Madison, Anora

As the young man who so bedevils Craig’s character, the Outer Banks hunk has the difficult assignment of a character whose inner motivations must remain a mystery. He’s “reticent and undemonstrative, aware of his own handsomeness and not afraid to use it but not bold enough to totally own it,” says Matt Zoller Seitz. “He’s grappling with inner turmoil even when he’s relaxed.” It’s probably too recessive a role to impact the awards race, but at least Starkey is reaping the benefits of an A24 press tour, including an Esquire photo spread.

September 5 is Schrödinger’s contender: Is the Munich Olympics docudrama a potent player awaiting its moment or an also-ran whose own studio barely wanted it? The film was originally set to open in limited release on Friday but saw its date pushed back a month at the last minute — a sign simultaneously of confidence and of panic. Whatever else happens, Sarsgaard’s ABC Sports producer did land a nomination from the AARP Movies for Grownups Awards last week. Points on the board!

Yura Borisov, Anora; Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Guy Pearce, The Brutalist; Denzel Washington, Gladiator II

In a matter of weeks, we’ve gone from “Can Ariana Grande get nominated?” to “Is Ariana Grande the Oscar frontrunner?” At the moment, this is all a matter of vibes, and we won’t have anything concrete to go on until SAG nominations in early January. Still, as Gregory Ellwood reminds us, if you’re looking for comparisons, “Jennifer Hudson and Anne Hathaway are right there.”

Like Madame Web, Queer climaxes with a trip to South America, where Craig’s character seeks a plant he believes will give him telepathic powers. There, he encounters Manville, whom I can describe only as “Yosemite Sam if he was played by an Oscar-nominated British thespian.” She’s a hoot and a half, and though I doubt it’s the kind of performance that will resonate with the Academy, expect to see her pop up on the social-media feeds of all your most culturally literate friends.

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson; Ariana Grande, Wicked; Felicity Jones, The Brutalist; Saoirse Ronan, Blitz; Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez