9 bold predictions for the 2025 F1 season

With a new year come new opportunities.

In the Formula 1 world, that means some new faces in new places and hopes for better performance in the season ahead.

For those who cover the sport, a new year and a new season mean more chances to get some predictions wrong.

But we forge on, and as we continue to look ahead to what could be another incredible F1 season, we can start with some predictions for the season ahead. The aim today? Listing some of the bolder predictions for the 2025 F1 season.

A first-year driver wins a Grand Prix

Let’s come out of the gate hot, shall we?

As noted yesterday, six new drivers will take to the grid on a full-time basis in 2025: Supersubs Oliver Bearman and Liam Lawson have secured full-time seats at Haas and Red Bull, respectively; Gabriel Bortoleto, fresh off winning the F2 Drivers’ Championship, earned a full-time seat at Sauber; Isack Hadjar, who came up short in his F2 title race against Bortoleto, has taken the seat next to Yuki Tsunoda at VCARB; Jack Doohan earned a promotion from reserve driver to full-time driver at Alpine, and young phenom Andrea Kimi Antonelli will make his debut at Mercedes, taking over the seat vacated by Lewis Hamilton.

One of them is going to win a Grand Prix this year.

The two most likely candidates? First would be Lawson, who slides into the seat next to Max Verstappen at Red Bull. His 11 Grand Prix starts — and the fact he is going to be driving the RB21 in a year Red Bull will have more aerodynamic testing time thanks to their third-place finish in the 2024 Constructors’ Championship race — makes him a prime candidate among the new full-time drivers to win a Grand Prix.

The other? That would be Antonelli, who despite his inexperience is moving into an incredible opportunity at Mercedes, as the Silver Arrows won four races a year ago and seem to have finally figured out the physics of the current ground effect era.

If you are wondering, the last rookie to win a Grand Prix? That would be the driver Antonelli is replacing, Hamilton back in 2007. Oscar Piastri won an F1 Sprint Race during his rookie year in 2023, but Hamilton is the last rookie to reach the top step of the podium after a Grand Prix, and his four wins as a rookie is still tied with Jacques Villeneuve as the most ever in a single season for a rookie.

Yuki Tsunoda announces a move to Aston Martin

The 2024 F1 season began with speculation about Sergio Pérez’s future at Red Bull.

While the team looked to end that speculation with a new contract for the driver his struggles down the stretch — and Red Bull’s disappointing third-place finish in the Constructors’ Championship — opened the door to further debate about his future with the team. Finally, days after the season ended, Red Bull confirmed that the two sides had parted ways.

Promoted to the seat alongside Max Verstappen? Liam Lawson, who after two seasons as a super sub at VCARB now gets his shot at driving for Red Bull.

Lawson’s promotion also means that Yuki Tsunoda, who believed he was ready for a promotion to Red Bull, will be back at VCARB in 2025 along with incoming rookie Isack Hadjar.

And Tsunoda’s time in the Red Bull family may be running out. Addressing the media after the Lawson announcement, Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner indicated that Tsunoda’s days as a “bridesmaid” may be coming to an end.

“We’re acutely aware that if we’re not able to provide an opportunity for Yuki [at Red Bull] in all honesty this year, does it [keeping him on] make sense?,” said Horner in December. “You can’t have a driver in the support team for five years. You can’t always be the bridesmaid. You’ve either got to let them go at that point or look at something different.”

Where could Tsunoda land?

How about Aston Martin?

While Aston Martin has a driver pairing in veterans Fernando Alonso and Lance Stroll, it might not seem there is an immediate opening for Tsunoda. Alonso’s experience and status as a former champion likely means a seat at Aston Martin is his as long as he wants it, and as for Stroll, the presence of Lawrence Stroll as the team’s owner probably means that the second seat is his as long as he wants it.

But with Honda joining Aston Martin as their power unit supplier in 2026, the door is open for Tsunoda to join Aston Martin in the future. Tsunoda graduated from the Honda Racing School, and the company has played a huge role in Tsunoda’s racing career.

Over the past few seasons, speculation about such a move has followed Tsunoda. While the driver long maintained that his focus is on a future at Red Bull, the door seems to be closing on that opportunity.

A move to Aston Martin — perhaps initially as a reserve for 2026 ahead of either a retirement from Alonso or Stroll stepping away from the sport — seems more and more likely each day.

Alpine starts the season on the front foot

As the saying goes, a picture is worth a thousand words.

To that end, indulge me for a moment with this image:

Courtesy of Formula1Points, this is the fight for sixth in the F1 Constructors’ Championship last season. That pink line? That is Alpine, who began the year with a challenger that was overweight, and a driver pairing in Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon who were mired at the back of the grid as a result.

But following a late-season upgrade package the team rolled out at the United States Grand Prix, Alpine rocketed up the standings, and as you can see from this graph, ended the year on quite an impressive run.

That trend will continue into 2025. While Ocon has moved over to Haas, and Doohan has slid into his seat, Alpine will begin the year on the front foot, building off their end to 2024.

Whether they stay at the front, however, remains to be seen.

Fernando Alonso captures that elusive 33rd win

It has become something of a rallying cry.

“33 soon?”

Legendary driver Fernando Alonso’s pursuit of his 33rd Grand Prix victory continues into 2025. Aston Martin’s tremendous start to the 2023 season led to hopes that Alonso would finally return to the top step of a podium for the first time since the 2013 Spanish Grand Prix, but the team’s strong start faded over that year.

Then this past season Aston Martin was stuck firmly in the middle of the pack, and Alonso’s best Grand Prix finish was a P5 in the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix, the second race of the season.

However, help is on the way. Help in the form of Adrian Newey, the greatest engineer in the history of Formula 1. While Newey will not begin his work with Aston Martin as the team’s Managing Technical Partner until March 1 — meaning he will not be the driving force behind the AMR24 — where he can help is in mid-season development, an issue that has been troublesome for Aston Martin these past two years.

Meaning that in the closing stages of 2025, Alonso secures that elusive 33rd win.

Carlos Sainz Jr. returns to the podium in his first year with Williams

Photo by Clive Rose/Getty Images

Ahead of the 2024 F1 season Alexander Albon looked me in the eyes in the Rainbow Room, 65 stories above the New York City streets, and made it clear that a goal for Williams in 2024 was to have a more consistent challenger. The reason? The FW45, the team’s challenger for 2023, was strong on the straights but struggled in the corners. That led to moments such as Albon’s incredible defensive performance at the Canadian Grand Prix, where he delivered a P7, or the team’s strong qualifying performance at the inaugural Las Vegas Grand Prix, where both Albon and Logan Sargeant advanced into Q3.

While Williams largely delivered on that goal — the FW46 was a more consistent race car than its predecessor — 2024 was still a down year for the team. Sargeant’s struggles continued into his second season, and he was replaced by Franco Colapinto, who burst on the scene with some impressive performances before struggling down the stretch.

The team was also undone by several crashes throughout the year from both Albon and Colapinto. One such crash from Albon came during practice at the Australian Grand Prix that left the team with one chassis for the Grand Prix itself. That led to Team Principal James Vowles making the difficult decision to bench Sargeant and slide Albon into his teammate’s FW46 for the race.

Another difficult weekend for the team came in Brazil when both Colapinto and Albon crashed during a rainy qualifying session that had been rescheduled to Sunday, ahead of the main event. While the team was able to get Colapinto’s FW46 turned around to start the race, the damage Albon’s car sustained was too much, and he missed the race.

But a new year brings new opportunities for Williams and a new teammate for Albon. With Lewis Hamilton moving to Ferrari, Carlos Sainz Jr. joins Williams for the 2025 campaign.

During his time with the Scuderia Sainz demonstrated not only the pace but the strategic acumen, to deliver wins and points for Ferrari. While the FW47 might not have the pace that Sainz is used to, something tells me that Sainz will find a way to a podium finish this year.

Lewis Hamilton wins at Monza

The 2024 Formula 1 season delivered several memorable moments.

Fans were treated to Lando Norris’ maiden win in Miami, Charles Leclerc finally winning the Monaco Grand Prix on the streets he learned to drive growing up, Max Verstappen holding off Norris to secure his fourth Drivers’ Championship, Zhou Guanyu finally getting to race at home in the Chinese Grand Prix, and more.

But for my money, nothing topped the emotional scenes of Lewis Hamilton returning to the top step of a podium in his final British Grand Prix with Mercedes. In the press conference following that triumph, Hamilton opened up about the self-doubt that had crept into his mind after years without a Grand Prix victory, and how he questioned whether he would ever win again.

What could top that moment?

Hamilton winning at Monza in his first season with Ferrari.

Cadillac F1 announces a driver lineup with one American

After months of wrangling, F1 finally announced that an 11th team is coming to the grid in 2026. That team? Cadillac F1, a team that originally began as a partnership between General Motors and Andretti Racing. That Cadillac-Andretti partnership was originally approved by the FIA, F1’s governing body, but then that team was denied entry to the grid by Formula One Management, the sport’s commercial rights holders.

But some restructuring within Andretti Global, including Michael Andretti stepping back from running that motorsport group and handing control to Dan Towriss, helped revive the proposed bid. In November of last year, F1 announced that a General Motors/Cadillac team would be joining the grid in 2026. The announcement indicated that F1 had maintained a dialogue with “General Motors, and its partners at TWG Global,” and those ongoing discussions led to the decision to admit Cadillac as an 11th team.

In case you are wondering, TWG Global is the parent company of Andretti Global.

Now that we have outlined the history of the incoming F1 team, we need to start thinking about their driver lineup for 2026.

When Michael Andretti announced the formation of the prospective Cadillac-Andretti team he stressed to the media in a press conference, including SB Nation, that it was going to be an “all-American team, with an American driver.”

Another bold prediction for the F1 year ahead is that Cadillac confirms that, announcing that Colton Herta will be one of their drivers for 2026.

As for the other driver alongside him? Cadillac could aim for an American duo, perhaps with Jak Crawford. Crawford finished fifth in the F2 Drivers’ Championship in 2024, and in addition to racing in F2 he is also a reserve driver for Aston Martin, as well as serving as a reserve driver for the Andretti Formula E team.

There are some other options for Cadillac, such as Pato O’Ward, who drivers for Arrow McLaren in IndyCar and is a reserve driver for McLaren’s F1 team. But with both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri entrenched on the F1 side for the next few years, O’Ward might need to look elsewhere for a spot on the F1 grid. Franco Colapinto would be an intriguing option, given his performance down the stretch for Williams.

While all those would be younger drivers, Cadillac could also look at a veteran option. Given his popularity, Daniel Ricciardo’s name has come to mind, and Sergio Pérez could be another option.

Or perhaps the newest reserve driver at Mercedes, one Valtteri Bottas.

McLaren and Ferrari again take the Constructors’ fight to the end

Photo by Joe Portlock/Getty Images

2024 saw McLaren and Ferrari fight until the final laps of the season to determine the F1 Constructors’ Championship.

That will again be the case this year.

At McLaren, their run to a title in 2024 perhaps came a year ahead of schedule, as CEO Zak Brown told me in the fall of 2023 that a title chase in 2024 was probably a bit ambitious. But struggles at Red Bull opened the door, and McLaren barged through en route to a title, learning along the way what it takes to run at the sharp end of the grid. That experience, the technical development they have shown over the past two seasons, and the presence of a tremendous driver pairing in Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri will keep them up front in 2025.

As for Ferrari, who fell short in their chase of McLaren in 2024, now they’ll have a fascinating driver pairing of their own in Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton. In addition, Ferrari seemed to figure out the tire degradation issues that plagued them in 2023, making them strong contenders themselves in the season ahead.

As for Red Bull? Having Max Verstappen will keep them in the fight — as will the additional testing hours available to them by finishing a surprising third last season — but the move to Liam Lawson signals to me that their eyes when it comes to the Constructors’ Championship are set on 2026.

Over at Mercedes, they too seem to have their eyes on the future, sliding young phenom Andrea Kimi Antonelli into the seat vacated by Hamilton. They will have their share of success, but 2025 seems to be about preparing Antonelli for a title chase of their own in 2026.

As for who emerges on top in this McLaren-Ferrari rematch? We’ll save that prediction for the full-season predictions that will come your way closer to the start of the schedule.

The Drivers’ Championship is decided in Abu Dhabi

The last bold prediction?

Similar to the Constructors’ Championship race, multiple drivers remain in contention for the Drivers’ Championship until the end of the season, with the title being decided in the season-ending Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.

2024 seemed to level the playing field in F1, whether due to the impact of the cost cap, some teams taking a step forward while others took a step back, or some combination thereof. As a result, we saw a jumbled grid, a three-way fight for the Constructors’ Championship between McLaren, Ferrari, and Red Bull until the final races of the season, and Max Verstappen not clinching his fourth Drivers’ Championship until late in the year.

With the incoming regulation changes in 2026, we could be for even more chaos in 2025, as some teams shift their focus to the next season. Lewis Hamilton moving to Ferrari makes him a strong contender alongside Charles Leclerc, and what we saw from McLaren in 2024 certainly means both Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri could be in the mix.

As for Max Verstappen? It is impossible to count him out.

The grid may arrive in Abu Dhabi with just a few drivers still in contention, but the 2025 Drivers’ Championship will come down to the season finale.